Relationship between Climate Factors, Temperature, and Humidity, and the Incidence of Dengue Cases in Mexico

Introduction: Dengue is an arbovirus that causes the disease dengue, transmitted primarily by mosquitoes, especially Aedes aegypti. The disease is characterized by an acute febrile illness with temperatures that can rise up to 40°C, accompanied by symptoms that disrupt the patient's general well-being. It is possible to analyze a potential ecological triad to assess the risk of contracting dengue, which includes the transmitting mosquito and the virus, a climate conducive to vector reproduction, and a relatively susceptible population.

Materials and Methods: This retrospective study utilized data obtained from Dengue non-severe morbidity yearbooks published from 2012 to 2023, as well as temperature and precipitation data for the states from the official CONAGUA website for the same years. This research only required computers with internet access for data collection. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 25.0. The Shapiro-Wilk test was used to determine the normal distribution of variables, considering year, temperature, river precipitation, and dengue cases as continuous variables and comparing them using the Student's t-test. Correlation analysis was conducted using the Pearson parametric test.

Results: A high positive correlation (r=0.68, p=0.004) was found between dengue and temperature, and a moderate positive correlation (r=0.55, p=0.02) was observed between dengue and river precipitation.

Conclusions: The general hypothesis was confirmed by establishing that temperature and river precipitation factors influence the increase in dengue cases due to the vector's ease of reproduction under these conditions. States with a tropical climate have a higher incidence of dengue cases compared to states with a dry climate.